More than five years after the establishment of the USMCA, trade among Mexico, the United States, and Canada has expanded. Between 2019 and 2024, exports from Mexico to the United States increased by 38% and those directed to Canada grew by 32%. In 2025, Mexico maintained its position as the leading trading partner of the United States despite the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration. According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), Mexican exports registered a year-on-year increase of 10.6% in June, amounting to 312 billion dollars, of which 84.14% were destined for the U.S. market, totaling 219 billion dollars. Between January and June, exports to the United States rose by 6.3%. Likewise, Mexico has increased exports to Canada by an average of 6.4% this year. Canada, in turn, has consolidated its position as the second-largest trading partner of the United States and Mexico, exporting 198.2 billion dollars to the U.S. and importing 171.9 billion dollars in the first half of 2025.

Despite the partnership’s importance, neither Mexico nor the USMCA have remained unscathed in this new era of protectionism. Several tariffs have been implemented, seriously affecting trade and the industries related to it. Uncertainty has resulted in a halt in investment in the country. 

Out of the 14 free trade agreements the United States has with 20 countries, the North American agreement is the only one that preserves zero tariffs for the majority of exports, but the implemented tariffs are having an impact and maybe setting the agenda for the upcoming review of the USMCA.

The agreement that rules trade among our three countries constitutes a key instrument for boosting regional competitiveness in a global context of economic uncertainty marked by tariff impositions from the United States on the global stage. A starting point to seize this opportunity is the development of a joint agenda that enables the region to capitalize on nearshoring while addressing regional needs with a long-term integration perspective.

Currently, the USMCA is set to remain in effect for 16 years (until 2036). However, during the scheduled review in July 2026, the member countries will have the option to extend the current validity of the agreement for an additional 16 years (until 2042). The Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO) conducted a study on the evolution of North American trade under this agreement. The research focuses on the development of strategic sectors such as automotive, electronics, and semiconductors. Notable figures include a 35% increase in automotive exports and a 48% rise in electronics exports between 2019 and 2024. Additionally, Mexican semiconductor exports exceeded 8 billion dollars in both 2023 and 2024. Therefore, the USMCA review process represents a critical opportunity to define the future trajectory of these strategic sectors, align commercial and industrial interests, create favorable conditions for investment, and strengthen Mexico’s role in North American value chains.

Another issue in view of the review is the current tariff landscape. Mexico is facing a 50% tariff on aluminum, copper, and steel, a 25% tariff on products not covered by the USMCA. Canada, for its part, faces a 35% tariff—in addition to duties on copper, aluminum, and steel—on imports that fail to meet the agreement’s rules of origin. While the U.S. Secretary of Commerce has stated that the U.S. government could collect over 50 billion dollars per month in tariff revenues, adverse effects on the domestic economy are already emerging, particularly in the form of inflationary pressures. Certainly, the interdependence between the United States and its two principal trading partners must not be overlooked in discussions surrounding the review of the USMCA.

In this context, the three countries must collaborate in key areas to ensure a tariff-free agreement that fosters a rules-based order conducive to deeper economic integration for their mutual benefit. Considerations should include the elimination of dumping cases as non-tariff barriers restricting market access, and the establishment of a joint approach toward addressing dumping by third countries. Equally important is the commitment by the three parties to ensure the complete elimination of tariffs for exports that comply with the rules of origin under the agreement, alongside efforts to update investment protections and modernize border management systems to facilitate trade flows. 

Ultimately, North America’s strength does not lie in the volume of tariffs it can collect, but in the depth of integration it can achieve. The review of the USMCA in 2026 is not just a procedural step; it is a defining moment for the region’s future competitiveness. Mexico, the United States, and Canada face the choice of retreating into short-term protectionism or building a framework that encourages investment, innovation, and trust. If the region aspires to remain competitive in an increasingly fragmented world, the answer should be clear: certainty, openness, and cooperation must prevail.